Morning Update for Friday March 20th

Note: Due to technical reasons, I had to re-load the graphs in this post, which resulted in updated graphs. The report is concerning info only to March 20th.

The US continues to increase the rate of testing.  Here's how we're tracking:

We're still behind where South Korea was at this point, but have done more tests on the common timeline than any other country (China and some other major countries don't share this data).   On a daily basis, you can see that our tests per day is actually higher than any country on the common timeline.  We have a ways to go

With a faster, easier test coming on line and more locations opening up, we can expect this number to continue to rise.

As we continue to test, we will see a rise in cases.  About 13% of our tests come back positive, so when we're doing close to 30,000 tests a day, you would expect to see 3900 new cases -- yesterday's number was higher than that.  Here's my current status chart:

Country	Population	Cases	Cases/1M	Tests Done	Tests/1M	Cases/Test
USA	331,000,000	13789	41.7	103,945	314.03	13.3%
China	1,439,323,000	80928	56.2	320,000	222.33	25.3%
Italy	60,462,000	41035	678.7	182777	3023.01	22.5%
South Korea	51,269,000	8565	167.1	316664	6176.52	2.7%
Spain	46,756,000	18077	386.6	N/A
Germany	83,697,000	15320	183.0	N/A
France	66,990,000	10995	164.1	34,570	516.05	31.8%
UK	66,440,000	3269	49.2	56221	846.19	5.8%
Canada	37,742,000	873	23.1	38,482	1019.61	2.3%
India	1,339,000,000	194	0.1	13,486
Indonesia	264,000,000	309	1.2	N/A
Philippines	104,900,000	217	2.1	1269	12.10	17.1%
Vietnam	97,339,000	85	0.9	14950	153.59	0.6%
Thailand	69,040,000	272	3.9	18	0.26	1511.1%
Malaysia	32,366,000	900	27.8	13876	428.72	6.5%
Singapore	5,612,000	345	61.5	N/A
South Africa	56,720,000	150	2.6	645	11.37	23.3%
Argentina	44,270,000	128	2.9	N/A
Australia	25,510,204	272	10.7	40651	1593.52	0.7%
Chile	18,050,000	342	18.9	N/A
New Zealand	4,705,882	28	6.0	584	124.10	4.8%

The common timeline graph shows us rising sharply:

I know this looks scary,  but not all cases are created equal.  50% of those who test positive show no symptoms at all.  I'm starting to track data on serious/critical cases, but here's a quick look:

Country	Cases	Critical
USA	13789	64
China	80928	2,274
Italy	41035	2,498
South Korea	8565	59
Spain	18077	939
Germany	15320	2
France	10995	1,122
UK	3269	20
Canada	873	1

The number of Serious and critical cases is MUCH less than Spain and France who have similar or lower case counts. One way to see this is that we can assume there are many more people in the US with the disease than we've counted (though that's true of most countries at this stage) so we're doing the right thing to limit contact with each other; but detecting those people doesn't put us in the same position as Italy or other countries being overwhelmed at this point.  I hope to write more about this soon.