The US May Have Crested The Peak Of New Cases and Deaths

Good morning.  Looking at this graph, it appears that we are past our peak levels for new cases and deaths. 

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I've put the scale for the new death rate to the right while the scale for new cases are to the left so you can see both curves well. Both graphs use a 3 day average to smooth the curve.  It appears COVID fatalities peaked around last Thursday and have been dropping steadily since then.  The number of new cases looks flat(ish) since April 3rd, but the peak day was a couple days ago.  Case levels can be affected by daily testing levels, but while there was a spike last week, they have been fairly consistent since then.  The fatality rates are not dependent on testing rates or other things, so when that goes down, you should feel good something is happening.

This doesn't mean the pandemic is over, but it is a good sign.  New cases per day is like acceleration.  If you were in a car with a stuck gas pedal, you'd be going faster and faster. When that curve flattens, its like you aren't going any faster, but you're still going very fast.  We are still having more cases and fatalities per day than any other country -- our car is going very fast -- but we've stopped going faster every day and are starting to decelerate. 

As it turns out, most of the other countries I'm looking at have also peaked in cases and fatalities.  I've also added a couple columns to the Current Status tab in my spreadsheet that look at other countries. 

Country	Days post 100 cases	Highest Case per Day	Days Since Peak Case per Day	Highest Death per Day	Days Since Peak Deaths per Day
USA	42	33752	2	2056	2
China	85	143	20	38	40
Italy	50	6203	17	951	8
South Korea	53	600	41	9	18
Spain	42	8271	17	961	10
Germany	43	6933	16	333	4
France	44	23060	9	1417	5
UK	39	8681	2	980	2
Canada	31	1600	7	84	1
India	31	877	2	49	3
Indonesia	28	399	0	79	2
Philippines	30	538	12	50	0
Vietnam	22	20	14	N/A	N/A
Thailand	28	143	14	4	9
Malaysia	35	258	10	8	14
Singapore	42	287	3	23	3
South Africa	27	243	16	24	2
Argentina	25	234	12	14	3
Australia	33	536	19	198	5
Chile	28	529	2	9	2
New Zealand	22	146	15	2	2

Two days is not long to be past a peak.  The US curve has been flat, but Canada, the UK, and others with 2 or less days may still be growing. The Status tab will reset to 0 if there's a new peak so feel free to check on it. In a couple days it should be even clearer that for most countries the worst of COVID is behind them for this season. 

While the US may have peaked, different locations in the US are on different timelines.  For some perspective on NC, see my last post.